Threat of Nuclear
Overnight, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the defense minister and the military commander to place nuclear forces under a “special regime of combat duty.” Putin has shown that he is ready to take extreme risks to achieve his geopolitical objectives. Putin’s chances of ordering the deployment of nuclear weapons in reaction to US or NATO involvement seem low, but we cannot ignore them. The United States has described the escalation as a “dangerous rhetoric.” This alarming revelation shows how high the stakes in the global nuclear race have become in recent weeks. The conflict in Ukraine should serve as a reminder to everyone that these threats are serious.
Nuclear weapons are the most lethal weapons on the planet. They have the power to destroy huge cities, killing millions of people while also causing damage to the natural environment and future generations’ lives. The hazards of such weapons stem from the fact that they exist. The best defense against nuclear weapons is disarmament. Nuclear weapons are like abstract barriers to conflict and keeping the peace.
Although nuclear weapons are freely available in Europe, their intentions are hard to know. Russia has the world’s biggest nuclear weapons force, including tactical nuclear weapons designed for war operations. The United States has massive and sophisticated nuclear weapons. NATO allies France and the United Kingdom have modernized their nuclear weapons, and NATO allies Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey have US nuclear weapons on their territory.
The conflict should cease for the sake of the Ukrainian people, Europe, humanity, and life on Earth. It may appear overdone until you consider that if the international community fails to respond to Putin’s actions in Ukraine, a new age of cruelty will begin. A future in which nuclear-armed state leaders can pursue territorial expansion policies without fear of international reaction. It’s indeed a right of passage to demand the elimination of nuclear weapons and the establishment of stable security arrangements based on a functional UN system that follows international law.
Sources: The Guardian, Vox.
Brent crude oil prices flirted with $100 this week as markets anticipate a disruption in the increasingly likely event that Russia launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Oil prices have continued to rise this week, with Brent crude briefly exceeding $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014, as Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Prices moderated slightly on Friday analysts believed that this might rise to more than $130 amid the consequences of the conflict. The attack might have far-reaching effects on global energy markets, given Russia’s position as the world’s second-biggest natural gas producer and one of the world’s top oil producers.
Oil prices have risen by more than $20 a barrel since the beginning of the year as tensions between Russia and Ukraine rose. Now, a wave of international sanctions aimed at Russia’s energy sector is threatening to disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures surged more than 8% to a session high of $105.79 a barrel, the highest level since August 2014. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil futures rose more than 9% to a high of $100.54, the highest level since July 2014. During Wall Street’s afternoon trading, both contracts fell. WTI ended the day at $92.81 per barrel, up 71 cents, or 0.77 percent. The deal went into negative territory at one point. Brent crude rose 2.3 percent to $99.08 a barrel, a gain of 2.3 percent. Natural gas costs have increased by 6.5 percent. Spot gold, reviewed and enhanced as a safe-haven asset, rose 2.6 percent to $1,957.46 per troy ounce.
The US, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia, and Japan were among the countries that announced the first wave of sanctions against Russia earlier this week, which targeted banks and wealthy individuals. The second set of sanctions is to be issued soon, with some analysts predicting that energy transactions will be exempt. While the exact impact on international oil markets is still unknown, the International Energy Agency indicated earlier this week that member countries are ready to “act together to guarantee that global oil markets get properly supplied.”
Despite Russia’s attack, Matthew Smith, Kepler’s head oil analyst for the Americas, believes there may not be an immediate disruption in supply. When it comes to energy, Europe and Russia are very intertwined, and each is dependent on the other. He noted that the US and the West are unlikely to pursue sanctions specifically at energy flows.
Traders were also watching developments surrounding a possible nuclear deal between the US and Iran. With Iran’s crude oil reserves believed to be about 80 million barrels, an agreement might bring additional oil back to global markets. Though JPMorgan analysts expect a drop in Russian energy exports as the crisis with Ukraine escalates, they also believe an Iran deal to be achieved, which could help compensate for lost supply. Brent crude is expected to average $110 a barrel in the second quarter and fall to $90 by the end of 2022, according to this best-case scenario.
Ukraine agrees to hold peace talk with Russia
Russia and Ukraine have begun talks on a peace treaty. According to a posting on the Telegram messaging app, Russian and Ukrainian ambassadors would meet without preconditions near the Belarusian border at an unidentified site. However, no date or time for the meeting has yet been decided. The news came just hours after Russia announced the arrival of its diplomatic delegation in Belarus to prepare for the peace talks.
The news came on the fourth day of Russia’s invasion from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. Officials from Ukraine had initially opposed conducting talks in Belarus, claiming that any conversations should take place elsewhere because Belarus had enabled Russian soldiers to utilize its territory as a staging ground for the invasion. Later, the Ukrainian President’s office stated that conversations with Moscow would take place at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border without preconditions. Anton Geraschenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs, said the two sides had begun discussions at around 3.30 pm on Sunday.
The talks began as Ukraine declared “complete control” of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, seized by Russian troops earlier on Sunday. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on high alert. A move strongly condemned by Western countries, particularly the United States. On state television, Putin highlighted “aggressive words” by Nato leaders and economic sanctions imposed by the West against Russia as his justifications. A Ukrainian state agency stated that Ukraine had repelled a Russian attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, in which Russian troops blew up a natural gas pipeline.
Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries, the majority have found refuge in Poland. According to the United Nations, at least 240 Ukrainians have died, with 4,300 Russian servicemen killed, according to the Ukrainian defense ministry. Ukraine’s Western allies have responded to Russia’s land, sea, and air invasion by placing a near-total ban on Russian airlines flying across European airspace. As part of the most severe economic sanctions yet imposed on Moscow, the United States, and Europe, major Russian banks will be banned from using Swift, a critical global payments system. Other restrictions have been proposed, such as limiting Moscow’s use of a £470 billion war fund of central bank reserves. Kyiv blasted Russia for its “destructive activities” at the end of the peace negotiations. The five-hour conversations, according to a member of the Ukrainian team, were difficult as the Russian side was biased.
Sources: ITV, Al Jazeera.
Covid cases falling around the World
According to the World Health Organization, the number of new coronavirus infections reduced by 21% last week, marking the third week in a row that instances of COVID-19 have fallen. Over 12 million new coronavirus infections were recorded last week, according to the WHO’s weekly pandemic report. COVID-19 deaths decreased by 8% to nearly 67,000 worldwide, the lowest weekly mortality rate since early January. The Western Pacific was the only region to see a 29 percent increase in COVID-19 cases.
The Western Pacific and Africa saw an increase in new deaths, while the rest world saw a decline. The latest COVID-19 cases had seen in Russia, Germany, Brazil, the United States, and South Korea. According to the World Health Organization, omicron remains the most common virus on the planet, accounting for more than 99 percent of sequences shared with the world’s largest virus database. The only other significant variant, it claimed, was delta, which accounted for less than 1% of all shared sequences. The WHO also claims that “existing vaccine evidence suggests that booster immunization greatly improves (vaccine effectiveness)” against the omicron strain, but research on how long this protection lasts is needed.
According to health professionals, Omicron causes milder illness than previous COVID-19 variants. It is spreading widely in countries with high vaccination rates, even though COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality rates have not increased significantly. Scientists have warned that if COVID-19 is allowed to spread unchecked, it could lead to the emergence of more transmissible and deadly variants. WHO’s Europe chief Dr. Hans Kluge says the region is now entering a “plausible endgame” for the virus and said there is now a “singular opportunity” for authorities to end the acute phase of the pandemic.
Britain announced it would scrap all remaining COVID-19 restrictions This week, including the requirement for people with the illness to self-isolate, even as Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged there could be future deadly variants of the virus. Earlier this month, Sweden abandoned wide-scale testing for COVID-19 even in people with symptoms, saying that testing costs and the expense of its pandemic restrictions were “no longer justifiable.” Hong Kong’s leader, meanwhile, announced Tuesday that the city will test its entire population of 7.5 million people for COVID-19 three times in March as it grapples with its worst outbreak yet, driven by the highly contagious omicron variant.
Sources: CBS, Daily Mail.